449
FXUS64 KHUN 060022
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
722 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT GIVEN RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND THE FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FOG POTENTIAL IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD
OVER THE REGION TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON AGAIN,
OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY- MENTIONED UPPER LOW
SWIRLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH, NORTH ALABAMA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES.
ANOTHER COOL MAY DAY IS ANTICIPATED, AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WEST OF I-65 AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
EAST OF I-65.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DWINDLE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AT
THIS POINT, WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED. IT WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL,
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE BEGINNINGS OF A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS UPON US FOR THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW (SHIFTING NORTHEAST), BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES EASTERN TEXAS
AND INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM (HOW FAR NORTH IT MOVES) WILL DICTATE
HOW MUCH RAIN WE ULTIMATELY SEE IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. OVERALL, FOR NOW, IT SEEMS
THAT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER LOUSIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT
(40-60%) AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (60-80%). MODEL PWATS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA RANGE GENERALLY FROM 1.35-1.45 INCHES DURING
THIS TIME AND, WHEN LOOKING AT SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BMX, 1.48
INCHES IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND, ALONG WITH SOGGY SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINS, COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS LAUDERDALE DOWN
THROUGH MORGAN AND CULLMAN BEING THE AREAS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH, RECENT TRENDS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD (A POSSIBLE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE SYSTEM SLATED TO
PROGRESS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH). THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OVER A SIMILAR
AREA, OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY (AL) TO CULLMAN COUNTY, TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OVERALL, SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OUTPERFORM CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS IF THEY
CONTINUOUSLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, AGAIN, ALL OF
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
THUS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AND
MODEL TRENDS.
IN TERMS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH, MODEL CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
ADDITION TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES. SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS DECREASE
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT
THOUGH, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY, BUT WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE WET TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AND SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST. AT THIS SURFACE THIS WILL AMOUNT TO SEVERAL DAYS
OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND
SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. BY
SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SE ALONG THE GULF COAST
PLACING US SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE. THESE TWO DUELING FEATURES WILL INDUCE ENE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST HOWEVER
CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY MAKE A PLAY AT INFLUENCING A DRIER FORECAST. LIKEWISE, LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY ON JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES. FURTHER WEST WOULD DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, ANY FOG
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24
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