190
FXUS64 KHUN 060444
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WITH THE SUN SETTING BELOW THE HORIZON, TEMPS HAVE BEGUN THEIR
DESCENT FOR THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AS NW FLOW ALONG A MID LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS OUR COOL,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS, THE
CALM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN WILL MAKE
FOG AGAIN A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SEEING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY YIELDING LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 70S. THE NEAR PERFECT
SPRING DAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST SO MAKE SURE TO ENJOY IT!
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OUR FOCUS WILL WILL SWITCH TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NE FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGH (70-80%) RAIN CHANCES
IN PLACE BY MID DAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, THE MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AND ENCROACH UPON THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE LONG TERM AS PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES
TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS LOW SHEAR VALUES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT
STORMS ABILITY TO ORGANIZE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS PERIODS OF
ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AND SHOWER COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MAKING FOR VERY MILD CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PRESENT MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PROMPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CAMP IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DURING ITS
RESIDENCY, THE LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SW SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, DECREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TN VALLEY. SHOULD THE LOW
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EVEN IF
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT, SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING, AGAIN
INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
OTHER THAN PATCHY BR/FG THROUGH 13Z (LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS),
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page