475
FXUS64 KHUN 060739
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEYS, HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z OR SO.
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH
THE JET WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL LEAVING A SUNNY SKY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO
THE OZARKS, MID SOUTH AND LOWER TN/MS VALLEYS AS AN UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE TX PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ATOP THE
HIGHER PLATEAUS/MTNS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BY TONIGHT OUR FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
NE FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGH (70-80%) RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
BY MID DAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, THE MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AND ENCROACH UPON THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE LONG TERM AS PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES
TO LOOK UNLIKELY AS LOW SHEAR VALUES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT
STORMS ABILITY TO ORGANIZE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS PERIODS OF
ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AND SHOWER COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MAKING FOR VERY MILD CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PRESENT MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PROMPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CAMP IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DURING ITS
RESIDENCY, THE LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SW SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, DECREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TN VALLEY. SHOULD THE LOW
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EVEN IF
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT, SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING, AGAIN
INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
OTHER THAN PATCHY BR/FG THROUGH 13Z (LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS),
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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