825
FXUS64 KHUN 061601
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE DENSE RIVER FOG SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING OVER THE AREA. WILL ENJOY ONE LAST
DAY OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BUT STILL REMAINS THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE OF WEATHER LOCALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN (50-80%) AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.4-1.6", HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REACH.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND THE FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LOW.
REGARDLESS, USE CAUTION IF DRIVING DURING HEAVY RAINFALL AS RECENT
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
DAMPEN AND ENCROACH UPON THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE LONG TERM AS PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY AS LOW SHEAR VALUES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT STORMS
ABILITY TO ORGANIZE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS PERIODS OF ON AND
OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
AND SHOWER COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT TEMPS TO 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAKING FOR VERY
MILD CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PRESENT MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PROMPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CAMP IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DURING ITS
RESIDENCY, THE LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SW SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, DECREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TN VALLEY. SHOULD THE LOW
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EVEN IF
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT, SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING, AGAIN
INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
PATCHY BR/FG THROUGH 14Z (LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS) WILL
DISSIPATE. VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH 07/06Z BEFORE MULTILAYER CEILINGS AS LOW AS ~015-025AGL
(MVFR) ARRIVE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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