231
FXUS64 KHUN 070026
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
726 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE DENSE RIVER FOG SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING OVER THE AREA. WILL ENJOY ONE LAST
DAY OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BUT STILL REMAINS THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE OF WEATHER LOCALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN (50-80%) AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.4-1.6", HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REACH.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND THE FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LOW.
REGARDLESS, USE CAUTION IF DRIVING DURING HEAVY RAINFALL AS RECENT
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE MO OZARKS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE
AIRMASS WON'T BE AS MOISTURE RICH AS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME WAA THAT WILL KEEP LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST ON AND OFF THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED
THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ON
WEDNESDAY, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A LITTLE ON THURSDAY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PRESENT MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PROMPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CAMP IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DURING ITS
RESIDENCY, THE LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SW SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, DECREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TN VALLEY. SHOULD THE LOW
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EVEN IF
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT, SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING, AGAIN
INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
OVERCAST LAYERS OF AS/CS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MID/UPPER
TX COASTAL PLAIN. A VAST REGION OF LGT-MOD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSRA
(TO THE NORTH OF DEEPER/SEVERE CONVECTION, WHICH WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL) WILL ENTER NORTHWEST AL BTWN
2-4Z AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY NOT FALL TO
LEVELS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAFS, REDUCTIONS IN BOTH
CIG/VSBY WILL OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
REGIME WILL EXIT NORTHERN AL TOMORROW, AND THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT (CURRENTLY
RESIDING JUST INLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST). AT THIS POINT,
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIDESPREAD, LOW STRATUS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF TSRA (SHOULD THE WARM FRONT ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION). LGT/VRBL SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE ESE
BEFORE 12Z AS A WEAKENING HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO VEER TO SSE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD
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