346
FXUS64 KHUN 070521
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS, WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME (BUT REMAIN IN THE
35-40 KNOT RANGE) IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT WILL
PROGRESS FROM EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS BY 0Z THURSDAY. A
COUPLE OF PRECEDING DISTURBANCES (PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED)
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KY) WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO
EASTERN VA, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM
THE ESE BY SUNRISE AND VEER TO SSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS OK/AR. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION (WHICH HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH A REGION
OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT) WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A
MARINE WARM FRONT LYING IMMEDIATELY INLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT- MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAIN (AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL RAPIDLY
OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL CWFA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS, WITH NO SEVERE RISK BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL CG-
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE AXIS OF NOCTURNAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z, LINGERING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND THE STABILIZING IMPACTS FROM ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD RETARD THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE MARINE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THAT SAID, WE STILL ANTICIPATE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
MID-LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND SUPPORT CAPE IN THE 250-500 J/KG
RANGE). IF THE FRONT INDEED WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION, DEWPOINTS ADVECTIVELY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WOULD
SUPPORT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF 500-1000 J/KG
CAPE AND MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 35-40 KNOTS, BUT AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS AS IF THIS RISK WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE MO OZARKS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE
AIRMASS WON'T BE AS MOISTURE RICH AS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME WAA THAT WILL KEEP LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST ON AND OFF THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED
THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ON
WEDNESDAY, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A LITTLE ON THURSDAY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PRESENT MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PROMPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CAMP IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DURING ITS
RESIDENCY, THE LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SW SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, DECREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TN VALLEY. SHOULD THE LOW
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EVEN IF
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT, SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING, AGAIN
INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A LARGE REGION OF RAIN IS SLOWLY LIFTING NE INTO NORTH AL AND
WILL START TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT A REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VIS WITH THE RAINFALL, MAINLY DOWN
TO MVFR BUT IFR AT TIMES WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME PRETTY ISOLATED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THUS DID NOT INCLUDE A PROB30
TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE, HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS
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