922
FXUS64 KHUN 071050
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SFC HIGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE SFC LOW
IN MS SLIDES INTO THE REGION. THE BROAD REGION OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN TX/OK HAS SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. OBS ARE
CONFIRMING LOW CEILING HEIGHTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE
STRATIFORM RAINFALL. BEHIND THIS BATCH OF PRECIP IS A WAKE LOW
THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
IN N MS (PER 1 AM OB AT KTUP). THE WAKE LOW IS CURRENTLY (2 AM)
MOVING INTO NW AL WHERE AN OB OF 25KTS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT
KMSL, BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF GUSTS OF 30 KTS.
CAMS ARE SHOWING A LULL IN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AFTER 14Z WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS SUGGESTING THE WARM FRONT IS NOT LIFTING
NORTHWARD VERY QUICKLY DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THE
PRECIP THIS MORNING AND LINGERING LOW CEILING HEIGHTS. THE FRONT
WILL BE MONITORED AS IT WOULD AFFECT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WEAK THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE MO OZARKS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE
AIRMASS WON'T BE AS MOISTURE RICH AS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME WAA THAT WILL KEEP LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST ON AND OFF THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED
THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ON
WEDNESDAY, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A LITTLE ON THURSDAY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PRESENT MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES PROMPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CAMP IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DURING ITS
RESIDENCY, THE LOW LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SW SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, DECREASING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TN VALLEY. SHOULD THE LOW
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EVEN IF
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT, SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LACKING, AGAIN
INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES, HOWEVER MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING THEIR COVERAGE AND LOCATION, THUS INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
NOW. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AND FALL INTO IFR. KEPT OPTIMISTIC WITH OVC008 BUT THEY COULD BE
LOWER, THIS IS A TREND TO MONITOR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS
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