231
FXUS64 KHUN 071608
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE RAIN CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON
TRENDS AS WELL AS CAMS HINTING AS A LARGE BREAK IN RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT-- WHICH COULD BE PUSHED
AS LATE AS THIS EVENING AS THEY MAY EVEN BE CURRENTLY OVERDONE AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES, THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES (70%+) OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STICK AROUND THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER ONCE AGAIN AS HIGHS REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT, THESE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THURSDAY, A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD, BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA. CAMS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES (40-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65) TO SUPPORT A GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WIND THREAT AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR HAIL. THE MAIN WINDOW OF
CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 PM - 10 PM CT. RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES
RETURN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
REFLECT A COOLING PATTERN, GOING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, WE WILL REMAIN IN A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, HOWEVER, PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE PER THE LREF 50TH
PERCENTILE-- WHICH FALLS JUST ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST, THERE COULD BE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO RUNOFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REFLECT A WARMING
PATTERN AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S-60S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES, HOWEVER MVFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING THEIR COVERAGE AND LOCATION, THUS INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
NOW. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AND FALL INTO IFR. KEPT OPTIMISTIC WITH OVC008 BUT THEY COULD BE
LOWER, THIS IS A TREND TO MONITOR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...JMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page