823
FXUS64 KHUN 071714
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1214 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE RAIN CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON
TRENDS AS WELL AS CAMS HINTING AS A LARGE BREAK IN RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT-- WHICH COULD BE PUSHED
AS LATE AS THIS EVENING AS THEY MAY EVEN BE CURRENTLY OVERDONE AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES, THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES (70%+) OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STICK AROUND THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER ONCE AGAIN AS HIGHS REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT, THESE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THURSDAY, A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD, BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA. CAMS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES (40-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65) TO SUPPORT A GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WIND THREAT AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR HAIL. THE MAIN WINDOW OF
CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 PM - 10 PM CT. RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES
RETURN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
REFLECT A COOLING PATTERN, GOING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, WE WILL REMAIN IN A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, HOWEVER, PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE PER THE LREF 50TH
PERCENTILE-- WHICH FALLS JUST ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST, THERE COULD BE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO RUNOFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REFLECT A WARMING
PATTERN AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S-60S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV AS LOWERED CLOUD CEILINGS LINGER
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
HOWEVER, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AREA AND IF THESE WILL
AFFECT THE SITES THEMSELVES. THEREFORE, VCTS HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE
TAF AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER KMSL
OR KHSV. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT VFR CATEGORIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC
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