372
FXUS64 KHUN 071827
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LOW TO MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WHILE WE HAVE BEEN DRY MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO
EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STORMS
DEVELOPING BY 5 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 11 PM, WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS EVENING, HOWEVER,
SOME STORMS IN FAR NW AL, IF REALIZED, COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
RAIN CHANCES (10% OR LESS) TAKE OVER THE AREA. A LOW CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK UP/CLEAR OUT.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF FOG WILL BE ALONG LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND
IN ANY AREA THAT MAY RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING. ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THURSDAY, A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD, BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA. CAMS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES (40-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65) TO SUPPORT A GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WIND THREAT AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR HAIL. THE MAIN WINDOW OF
CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 PM - 10 PM CT. RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES
RETURN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
REFLECT A COOLING PATTERN, GOING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, WE WILL REMAIN IN A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, HOWEVER, PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE PER THE LREF 50TH
PERCENTILE-- WHICH FALLS JUST ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST, THERE COULD BE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO RUNOFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REFLECT A WARMING
PATTERN AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S-60S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV AS LOWERED CLOUD CEILINGS LINGER
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
HOWEVER, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AREA AND IF THESE WILL
AFFECT THE SITES THEMSELVES. THEREFORE, VCTS HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE
TAF AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER KMSL
OR KHSV. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT VFR CATEGORIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC
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