046
FXUS64 KHUN 080424
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WITH
CALM WINDS, THIS HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO DROP AND BECOME
BRIEFLY DENSE AT TIMES WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOW CLOUDS
CAN BE SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND NE ALABAMA LINGERING
IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER, IN BETWEEN EXPECT FOG, AT TIMES DENSE TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT,
EXPECT THIS DENSE FOG TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO THE DAYBREAK
HOURS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS FILL IN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM, THIS
WILL LIKELY TRAP DENSE FOG UNDERNEATH THEM. THUS, THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8 AM. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 8 AM AS MIXING OCCURS. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 60S PRIMARILY AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW
CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EDGE ESE DURING THE DAY AND FORCING
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS (A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL MIDDLE GROUND SEEMS TO BE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS). GOOD LAPSE RATES AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
AND MUCAPE ARE SHOWN IN GUIDANCE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN
8000 AND 9000 FEET ARE STILL SHOWN IN MODELS. HOWEVER, TIMING WILL
BE KEY IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THESE STORMS HAVE TO
WORK WITH. LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-3 KM) IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE, BUT
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, SO A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONCERN APPEARS
TO BE FROM 3 PM - 10 PM CT IN LATEST MODEL RUNS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES RETURN BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REFLECT A COOLING
PATTERN, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN MOVES BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL REMAIN IN A PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, HOWEVER, PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE PER THE LREF 50TH
PERCENTILE-- WHICH FALLS JUST ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST, THERE COULD BE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO RUNOFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REFLECT A WARMING
PATTERN AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S-60S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH A BKN-OVC COVERAGE OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT, WE
EXPECT PREVAILING CIGS TO BE IN THE 2500-5000 FT RANGE, ALTHOUGH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY IF SOME
BR/FG MANAGES TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE). THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
WARM SECTOR SHRA (AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA) MAY ALSO INCREASE A BIT
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP IN
THE TAFS. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER 12Z PERMITTING
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL TSRA TOMORROW AFTN AS AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THIS POINT, WE HAVE INDICATED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTION BTWN 18-24Z, BUT TIMING MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER FORECAST UPDATES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LGT/VRBL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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