115
FXUS64 KHUN 080725
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
WE HAVE A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG IN CLOUD-FREE
AREAS THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS DENSE IN SPOTS AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW, BUT CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EXPANDING
MORESO THAN THE FOG AT THIS HOUR.
A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MO THIS
MORNING WITH A 40-45KT JET AT 5H SOUTH OF ITS PATH. THIS WAS
SPARKING EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK. AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST TODAY, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE OR LIFT.
AMPLE SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS WILL YIELD
SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER BULK HEAR OF 35-40KT.
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT OR DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY, INCLUDING A 15%
(HATCHED) FOR 2" HAIL OR LARGER IN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TN AND A
PORTION OF JACKSON COUNTY IN AL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, MEDIUM
CHANCES RETURN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL REFLECT A COOLING PATTERN, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN MOVES BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL REMAIN IN A PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, HOWEVER, PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE PER THE LREF 50TH
PERCENTILE-- WHICH FALLS JUST ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST, THERE COULD BE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO RUNOFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REFLECT A WARMING
PATTERN AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S-60S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND
WILL CAUSE FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FROM 08-12Z FOR 3/4SM BR AND CEILINGS
~008AGL (IFR) AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. BY 16Z, FG/BR WILL DISSIPATE
AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 030AGL (VFR). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 22-23Z AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, ENDING BY 02-03Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST TS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17
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