435
FXUS64 KHUN 082355
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
655 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #239 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA
UNTIL 10 PM CDT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL OF 2"
INCHES (SOME LARGER!) ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH NEARING FROM THE WEST WAS HELPING TO
FIRE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NW ALABAMA, WITH STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
TUPELO ABOUT 30 MINUTES A WAY. SO FAR, MODEL OUTPUT WAS PROGGING
1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANING AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. THE
STORMS PER MODEL PLACEMENT SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO THE GEORGIA
BORDER. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS, CONDITIONS LATER THIS
EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION
OF FOG. SOME OF THE FOG LIKE LAST NIGHT COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE, WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS MEAN TROUGHING
PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE AND SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR REFERENCE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
UPPER TROUGHING, ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
FORM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY, THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. LOWER HEIGHTS
ROUNDING THIS LOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MAKE FOR MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN, WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S.
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IS A SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH FEATURE DURING THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME
SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
RAIN CHANCES AS WE GO INTO TUE/WED SHOULD LESSEN AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM (MORE ON IT'S EASTERN PERIPHERY)
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES, A GREATER
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE DIRECT SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY, AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY, AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS MORE TO THE EAST AND MORE SUN RETURNS. A STRONG
MID MAY SUN WILL BE NOTICED, HELPING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KHSV UNTIL AROUND 2Z. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A SOONER WINDOW FOR KMSL, LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE KMSL TERMINAL THEN. A
WINDOW OF 02Z TO 04Z LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR KHSV. FOR NOW, ONLY
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
OR HIGHER COULD OCCUR IN THAT WINDOW ALONG WITH TSRA. VSBYS OR
CIGS COULD LOWER AT TIMES TO IFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY. AFTER THESE
WINDOWS, NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
A FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. MODELS SHOW LIGHT
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS STARTING AT 09Z FOR BOTH
TERMINALS AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
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