669
FXUS64 KHUN 090459
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THANKFULLY, THE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT.
MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AREAS OF CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. EXPECT ON AND OFF ROUNDS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES (MAYBE A MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY PERIOD THROUGH 3 AM) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN
NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CLOUD COVER COULD
INCREASE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT WITH CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL TO DEWPOINT VALUES BETWEEN NOW AND 3 OR 4 AM.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW PATCHY DENSE TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO THE
DAYBREAK HOURS ON FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST THAT COULD CONSTITUTE
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT IN CASE THIS DEVELOPS. EITHER WAY, FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM IN THE MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. THEN EXPECT SUNNY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS VERY ON THIS PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING
ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE FRONT STALLS BETWEEN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
CHANCES OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY TONIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVER THE AREA.
THIS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
MOVES TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WE START
TO SEE A REX BLOCK SETUP OVER THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH BUT GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE
AXES SETTING UP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA ALOFT.
THE END RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY
STORMY CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MAYBE
THROUGH THURSDAY). WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING FLOODING
RISK AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HIGHER SHEAR MOVES INTO THE
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME PERIODS OF STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE
WEATHER AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL
BE COOLER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT/WET PATTERN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MOSTLY DURING THIS PERIOD.
CURRENT NBM WARMS THINGS UP AND DRIES US OUT AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. THINK THIS IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC, BUT LEFT IT FOR NOW.
TYPICALLY, REX BLOCK PATTERNS DO NOT BREAK UP THAT QUICKLY.
BY THURSDAY THOUGH, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS A BIT MORE
REASONABLE FOR US TO TRULY DRY OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 83 TO 88 DEGREE RANGE WITH SUNNY SKIES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO BKN DECKS OF LOWER
STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FOG. ONCE
FOG DISSIPATES, THE MVFR STATUS DECKS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE
DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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