327
FXUS64 KHUN 290603
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
RADAR IS CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR WITH BKN TO
OVC HIGH CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DAMPEN BUT NOT PREVENT
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED. SATELLITE AND OBS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR VISIBILITY TRENDS TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. REGARDLESS, USE CAUTION WHEN
DRIVING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THE STALLED FRONT BACK
NORTHWARD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
20-30KTS, WITH INSTABILITY AROUND 1K J/KG SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED NORTHWEST ALABAMA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS RISK.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SFC LOW EXITING THE BOOTHEEL OF MO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TN VALLEY. WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY
SPC FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER WITH A FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF BULK
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AND TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL NOTE THAT WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL WE
HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO AND SOME RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY ELEVATED AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED, THERE COULD BE
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS AND IT COULD TAKE
LESS WIND TO HAVE TREES UPROOT. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BY SEVERAL DEGREES, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICK AS THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER AND
LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND CAA, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TROUGHING WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION AND HEAD EAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TROUGHING
WILL BE EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SW, BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING WILL
PROVIDE THE SAME BENEFITS OF ALLEVIATING RAIN CHANCES FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLICATED AT THE SURFACE AS
WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS BENIGN PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY BRING BACK OUR SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CREATING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
HIGH 60S EACH DAY.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WE WILL BE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
THUS THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG
REMNANT BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY SUB SEVERE. WHILE LREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH
AFTERNOON, BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS, SIGNIFICANTLY
HANDICAPPING THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM, STORMS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS,
FEATURING AN OVERCAST CS LAYER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION REGIME TO
OUR SW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LGT RA (AND EMBEDDED TSRA)
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MSL/8Z AND HSV/10Z AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD BY MID-DAY. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR FROM CLOUD BASES THAT WILL ONLY DESCEND
TO ARND 6 KFT AND WITH LIMITED (IF ANY) REDUCTIONS TO VSBY. A
BROKEN LAYER OF MVFR-LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY SETTLE INTO THE
REGION AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING POSSIBLE BTWN 22-2Z BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LGT/VRBL THRU LATE THIS MORNING, WITH A SW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD
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