194
FXUS64 KHUN 290915
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
415 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM LA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA
AND SOUTHERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION REGIME IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO
THE EAST OF A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK FROM NORTH
CENTRAL TX EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z. THE
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A WEAK
STABLE LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AND WITH WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE ONLY
IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE, LIGHTNING/THUNDER AND PERHAPS AN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
LATEST NEAR TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
REGIME (FEATURING ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN) WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER THIS
MORNING, AND SHOULD BE EXITING OUR REGION TO THE EAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON. AS RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MORNING PRECIPITATION, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION CAN OCCUR TO SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE U70S-L80S
AND CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MS
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, BUT MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AL AS
WELL. BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH MINOR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE 500-MB WAVE (WHICH WILL SPREAD
FURTHER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN GA), LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH ANY NEW
CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SFC LOW EXITING THE BOOTHEEL OF MO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TN VALLEY. WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY
SPC FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER WITH A FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF BULK
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AND TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL NOTE THAT WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL WE
HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO AND SOME RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY ELEVATED AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED, THERE COULD BE
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS AND IT COULD TAKE
LESS WIND TO HAVE TREES UPROOT. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BY SEVERAL DEGREES, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICK AS THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER AND
LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND CAA, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TROUGHING WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION AND HEAD EAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TROUGHING
WILL BE EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SW, BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING WILL
PROVIDE THE SAME BENEFITS OF ALLEVIATING RAIN CHANCES FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLICATED AT THE SURFACE AS
WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS BENIGN PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY BRING BACK OUR SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CREATING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
HIGH 60S EACH DAY.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WE WILL BE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
THUS THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG
REMNANT BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY SUB SEVERE. WHILE LREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH
AFTERNOON, BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS, SIGNIFICANTLY
HANDICAPPING THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM, STORMS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS,
FEATURING AN OVERCAST CS LAYER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION REGIME TO
OUR SW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LGT RA (AND EMBEDDED TSRA)
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MSL/8Z AND HSV/10Z AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD BY MID-DAY. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR FROM CLOUD BASES THAT WILL ONLY DESCEND
TO ARND 6 KFT AND WITH LIMITED (IF ANY) REDUCTIONS TO VSBY. A
BROKEN LAYER OF MVFR-LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY SETTLE INTO THE
REGION AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING POSSIBLE BTWN 22-2Z BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LGT/VRBL THRU LATE THIS MORNING, WITH A SW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD
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