072
FXUS64 KHUN 291738
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AFTER A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, A LARGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THEN SLATED TO SWING OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (10-40%)
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING (40-80%).
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
CONGEALS INTO A BROKEN LINE BY 6AM FRIDAY, MOVING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 30 KNOTS TO BETWEEN
35-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS FOR
INSTABILITY, WE'LL HAVE BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER,
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. IN ADDITION, A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA BY 4-5AM. THAT SAID, THERE EXISTS A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS BOTH THIS EVENING (OVER NW AL)
AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING (AREA-WIDE) THAT COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL AS A TORNADO (LOW
CONFIDENCE). WE ARE MONITORING HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE GETS
THIS EVENING, THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AND TRENDS TO OUR WEST, AS
WELL AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION IN CASE ANY
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRIER
WEATHER WILL COMPRISE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WE LIKELY WILL GET
A REPRIEVE FROM RAIN AND STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WILL COME
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES HEAT UP A BIT, BUT FORTUNATELY ONLY INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S,
SO IT'LL FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER WHILE IT
LASTS!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TROUGHING WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION AND HEAD EAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TROUGHING
WILL BE EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SW, BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING WILL
PROVIDE THE SAME BENEFITS OF ALLEVIATING RAIN CHANCES FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLICATED AT THE SURFACE AS
WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS BENIGN PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY BRING BACK OUR SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CREATING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
HIGH 60S EACH DAY.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WE WILL BE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
THUS THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG
REMNANT BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY SUB SEVERE. WHILE LREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH
AFTERNOON, BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS, SIGNIFICANTLY
HANDICAPPING THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM, STORMS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AT
ISSUANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, CIGS WILL PLUMMET
BACK TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND A TORNADO, ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING (THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT).
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL THEY ARE PUSHED
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...26
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