073
FXUS64 KHUN 292345
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SINCE THIS MORNING, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS EASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA, SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE'VE SINCE UPDATED OUR TIMING FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA: 8PM-12AM THROUGH NORTHWEST
ALABAMA, 12-6AM THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND 4-6AM OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
AFTER A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, A LARGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THEN SLATED TO SWING OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (10-40%)
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING (40-80%).
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO A BROKEN LINE
OVERNIGHT, MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO
INCREASE FROM AROUND 30 KNOTS TO BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS FOR INSTABILITY, WE'LL HAVE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER AND PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. IN ADDITION, A 30-40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BY 4-5AM. THAT
SAID, THERE EXISTS A CONDITIONAL AND LOW THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THAT COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL AS A TORNADO (LOW
CONFIDENCE). WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE
GETS THIS EVENING, THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AND TRENDS TO OUR
WEST, AS WELL AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND MAKE SURE
TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION IN CASE ANY
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA!
FURTHERMORE, MODEL PWATS RANGE FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. THUS, THESE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS; AND, WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL WE'VE SEEN, THIS COULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
GENERAL (NON-SEVERE) STORMS WILL LINGER FROM MID TO LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE
TO NO RAIN IS THEN FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO MERELY DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S (DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE), WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT, DRIER
WEATHER WILL COMPRISE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WE LIKELY WILL GET
A REPRIEVE FROM RAIN AND STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WILL COME
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES HEAT UP A BIT, BUT FORTUNATELY ONLY INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S,
SO IT'LL FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER WHILE IT
LASTS!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TROUGHING WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION AND HEAD EAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT TROUGHING
WILL BE EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SW, BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING WILL
PROVIDE THE SAME BENEFITS OF ALLEVIATING RAIN CHANCES FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLICATED AT THE SURFACE AS
WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS BENIGN PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY BRING BACK OUR SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CREATING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
HIGH 60S EACH DAY.
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS HOWEVER WE WILL BE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
THUS THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG
REMNANT BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY SUB SEVERE. WHILE LREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH
AFTERNOON, BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS, SIGNIFICANTLY
HANDICAPPING THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM, STORMS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AT TAF ISSUANCE, A FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND EVEN FEWER
T-STORMS WERE PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST MAINLY ACROSS TN. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER COULD IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS
AROUND SUNSET. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT NOW ORIENTED FROM THE OZARKS TO
NORTHERN TX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL HELP BRING HIGHER ODDS OF CONVECTION EARLY FRI
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END FROM NW-SE AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER AWAY, LATE FRI MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AROUND
5-8KT THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT PASSES,
THEN FROM THE NW IN THE 10-20KT RANGE. REDUCED CIGS (AND AT TIMES
VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS) LATE TONIGHT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR
LATE FRI MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB
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