096
FXUS64 KHUN 300458
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
TENNESSEE WERE HEADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING, IN A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OUTPUT FROM VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
EVENING, THANKS TO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW/MID
60S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MO/AR OZARKS TO FAR NE TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. IT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS NW
ALABAMA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH STRONGER LIFT FROM THIS BOUNDARY,
HIGHER CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST. THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT, SHOWING
THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AREAS IN THE 5-7 AM TIMEFRAME,
THEN ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS. GIVEN DECENT FORCING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT IN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE.
A THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST, AS
THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
DESPITE A STRONG LATE MAY SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ONLY
RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. SW-W WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME MORE FROM
THE NW AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER HEIGHTS AND TROUGHING
ALONG THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL HELP CONTINUE SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING A "CHILLY" PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S, A GOOD TEN DEGREES
OR SO COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS. THE MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF MAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMAL READINGS IN THE MID 80S. A
BIT MILDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING LOWER END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START A NEW WEEK SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ON SUNDAY SHOULD FADE IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH A LOSS OF INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY SHOULD COOL FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL RETURN THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S. EVEN WARMER FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NEXT WEEK, IT WILL GRADUALLY BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WELL INLAND, WITH DEWPOINTS WED INTO
THU RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE, STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL RETURN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON AND ON THU.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO AT BOTH TERMINALS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW BETWEEN
15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SKY BECOMES CLEAR BY THE END OF THE DAY IN A DRIER, POSTFRONTAL
AIR MASS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...AMP.24
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