604
FXUS64 KHUN 300850
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
350 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF 4 AM,
INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST, WITH SBCAPE VALUES LARGELY
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG (WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING IN SOME AREAS).
HOWEVER, AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE 12-18Z WINDOW, EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLS, SUPERCELLS, AND LINE SEGMENTS -- AND AT LEAST A LOW-
END SEVERE THREAT DESPITE SOME OF THE THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THESE AREAS
WELL AFTER SUNRISE, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEATING THERE (AND
THUS MORE DESTABILIZATION). FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
THE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES (ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL
MAY HELP TO CREATE MORE OF A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HTX VWP DOES INDICATE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 0-1 KM, WITH RIGHT MOVING STORMS AND STORMS MOVING
WITH THE MEAN FLOW STILL INGESTING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH.
THUS, A LOW (BUT NON-ZERO) TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP MORE ROBUST MESOCYCLONES AND BECOME DISCRETE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 5 AM-6
AM AND EXIT NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY 11 AM-12 PM AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. ONE LIMITATION FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY POOR
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE LAPSES -- AND FOR THIS REASON THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
THE SKY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE CLOUDS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND A PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE END OF MAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BEING COMMON IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER HEIGHTS AND TROUGHING
ALONG THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL HELP CONTINUE SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING A "CHILLY" PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S, A GOOD TEN DEGREES
OR SO COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS. THE MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF MAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMAL READINGS IN THE MID 80S. A
BIT MILDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING LOWER END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START A NEW WEEK SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ON SUNDAY SHOULD FADE IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH A LOSS OF INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY SHOULD COOL FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL RETURN THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S. EVEN WARMER FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NEXT WEEK, IT WILL GRADUALLY BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WELL INLAND, WITH DEWPOINTS WED INTO
THU RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE, STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL RETURN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON AND ON THU.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO AT BOTH TERMINALS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW BETWEEN
15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SKY BECOMES CLEAR BY THE END OF THE DAY IN A DRIER, POSTFRONTAL
AIR MASS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...AMP
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