333
FXUS64 KHUN 301702
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS (LIMITED LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED) OVER
NORTHEAST ALABAMA HAVE SINCE PROGRESSED EAST. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LARGELY OVER - OTHER THAN A HEAVIER SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN DEKALB
THAT IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE COUNTY AROUND 1030AM, ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED,
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST, ANTICIPATING THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LASTLY, HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS; BUT, AREAS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) COULD BE
A BIT COOLER, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SYNOPTIC MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE BACKDOOR/REINFORCING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN! HOWEVER, CHANCES
RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%)
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH, WITH BULK SHEAR SHOWN BY MODELS TO MERELY
REACH BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS
ISN'T TO SAY WE WILL NOT SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS (MODEL INSTABILITY
VALUES LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN 750-1500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON), BUT
THEY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE, MORE OF THE "GARDEN-VARIETY" WE SEE
DURING THE SUMMERTIME.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
EACH DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT INCREASING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ON SUNDAY SHOULD FADE IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH A LOSS OF INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY SHOULD COOL FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL RETURN THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S. EVEN WARMER FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NEXT WEEK, IT WILL GRADUALLY BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WELL INLAND, WITH DEWPOINTS WED INTO
THU RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE, STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL RETURN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON AND ON THU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHED EAST AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR TONIGHT BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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