736
FXUS64 KHUN 311041
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTROLLING
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND A SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE DAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL BE PREVAILING. ALL IN ALL, A VERY PLEASANT LATE DAY OF MAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SUNDAY WE WILL FINALLY SAY GOODBYE TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING THAT
HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE TN VALLEY THE PAST WEEK ALTHOUGH NOT
WITHOUT ONE FINAL APPEARANCE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NE, A WEAK CUT
OFF LOW WILL RIPPLE ALONG ITS WESTERN EDGE AND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-50%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FORCING
WILL ONLY SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AS WE ENTER THE WORK WEEK, TROUGHING WILL BE REALLY AND TRULY
GONE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING BUILDING
IN THE MID LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING. SE FLOW ALONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THE REPETITIVE DAYS OF SE FLOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO SET UP WITH TEMPS
WARMING FROM THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO THE HIGH 80S BY MID WEEK.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, THE FAMILIAR HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF
SUMMER SHOULD GREAT US LIKE A SLOBBERY KISS FROM A FAMILY DOG.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AMOUNTING TO ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. A PATTERN SWITCH WILL ARRIVE IN
THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
MAINTAIN ELEVATED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
IT STALLS TO OUR NW. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND IN THE
AFTERNOONS AT AROUND 50-70%. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NW. THAT BEING SAID, LONG RANGE
MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN
THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND AS NEXT WEEKEND
DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...AMP.24
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