538
FXUS64 KHUN 011042
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY.
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COVER CURRENTLY NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER MO/AR. MOISTURE
RECOVERY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN EARLY JUNE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE, ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE TO OUR NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. CAMS SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS
THINKING AND SHOW THE LIMITED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM MAINLY OVER
THESE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL, A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING A LIMITED WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE DRY AIR MASS, THINK
THIS WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ANOTHER CALM AND SEASONABLE NIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. ONCE AGAIN, OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. AS WE START NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RETURNS BRINGING BACK A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S
ON MONDAY AND THEN UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER.
THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MIDWEEK A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AND BE SLOWED DOWN BY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WEDNESDAY DRY BUT BREEZY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS (LOW CHANCE OF
10-15%) SNEAK INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AND STALL OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS, IT WILL ALLOW FOR
A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN. LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) EXIST FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THEY
INCREASE TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-70%) ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR VALUES ON
THURSDAY, HOWEVER VALUES ARE INCREASING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
PWATS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS AROUND 70.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS A WEAK FRONT CLIPS THE AREA. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE AND
LOCATION TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24
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