720
FXUS64 KHUN 011748
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES; ALTHOUGH, A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
PROGRESS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY BEFORE DIPPING DOWN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NORTHERN
TENNESSEE AND ON EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER AND LOWER WITH REGARDS TO CHANCES OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. RECENT RUNS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT ALL, WITH
BLENDED GUIDANCE CATCHING ON TO THIS AS WELL. CHANCES THEREFORE
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO
RAIN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HIGHS ARE STILL SLATED TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME SPOTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STILL LINGERS OVER
THE REGION TODAY, WITH NO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OBSERVED THUS
FAR. THOSE SENSITIVE TO AIR QUALITY NEED TO CONTINUE TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TODAY AND EVEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND MAINTAIN ITS HOLD THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH, THIS WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL, WE CONTINUE
THE REPRIEVE FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT;
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR MID TO LATE WEEK (DISCUSSED BELOW). HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES! LOWS LOOK
TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN, INCREASING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MIDWEEK A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AND BE SLOWED DOWN BY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WEDNESDAY DRY BUT BREEZY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS (LOW CHANCE OF
10-15%) SNEAK INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AND STALL OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS, IT WILL ALLOW FOR
A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN. LOW
CHANCES (20-40%) EXIST FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THEY
INCREASE TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-70%) ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR VALUES ON
THURSDAY, HOWEVER VALUES ARE INCREASING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
PWATS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS AROUND 70.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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