851
FXUS64 KHUN 020545
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IT STRETCHING FROM PADUCAH
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KNOXVILLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE, A DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEATHER DAY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. GOOD BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD HELP DEVELOP A CU FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF THE WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. HRRR
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE AGREES WITH THIS THINKING BY SHOWING A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONCENTRATION OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING FROM DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BRINGING IN BOTH
WARMER AND MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. HUMIDITY ALSO BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AN EXTREMELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHILE A CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST'S COAST, BUT NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAVE
US WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. LUCKILY, THERE IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND
MEAGER SHEAR SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES RISE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SO DO THE PWATS. MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, LETTING THE FRONT
ONLY INCH CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY, PROVIDING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (60-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY NOT REALLY GETTING IN HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TRENDS OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
CONCERNS OF NOT ONLY STRONGER STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT,
AND SENDING RIPPLES THROUGH, FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN IF THE
FRONT ENDS UP FARTHER SOUTH OVER US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z TAF. A WEAK BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM SW KENTUCKY TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT SW
AND BE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
AND PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN CU FORMATION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY TO OUR NE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS
ISSUANCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB
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