582
FXUS64 KHUN 020841
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
341 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A BAND OF LOW/MID ALTITUDE CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WEST OF NASHVILLE TO THE NW TN/GA BORDER WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE REMNANTS OF SHOWERS THAT DISSIPATED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT, AND ARE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE MISSOURI TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS,
MOVING TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG. SO FAR, FOG HAS NOT IMPACTED
OUR OBSERVATION SITES. BUT IT CAN BE SEEN VIA A NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS VIEW, FORMING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY,
SOUTHERN DEKALB, AND AROUND SMITH LAKE IN SOUTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY.
WITH A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK, FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (~530 AM CDT).
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEPICTING THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER OUR
MORE NE AREAS, THEN SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE GO INTO THE
NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT, PLUS DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S, LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS,
WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WERE DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING
IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE LONGER TERM MODELS TRENDED DRY. WILL
STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS GO AROUND. THAT SAID, WE COULD SEE
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS FORMATION DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING FROM DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BRINGING IN BOTH
WARMER AND MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. HUMIDITY ALSO BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AN EXTREMELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHILE A CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST'S COAST, BUT NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAVE
US WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. LUCKILY, THERE IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND
MEAGER SHEAR SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES RISE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SO DO THE PWATS. MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, LETTING THE FRONT
ONLY INCH CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY, PROVIDING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (60-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY NOT REALLY GETTING IN HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TRENDS OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
CONCERNS OF NOT ONLY STRONGER STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT,
AND SENDING RIPPLES THROUGH, FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN IF THE
FRONT ENDS UP FARTHER SOUTH OVER US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z TAF. A WEAK BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM SW KENTUCKY TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT SW
AND BE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
AND PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN CU FORMATION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY TO OUR NE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS
ISSUANCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB
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