319
FXUS64 KHUN 021521
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1021 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A VERY SLOWLY MOVING OR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NW TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING NE ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS SHOWN NEAR 700 MB AND HIGHER IN
THE ATMOSPHERE, ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER, SEVERAL CAMS AND
THE CANADIAN SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING
AND FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING LATER
ON OR NEAR BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LUCKILY, SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO, THE MAIN THREAT WITH AN THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP(LIKELY VERY FEW) WILL BE MAINLY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER, COVERAGE(LIKELY
MAINLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NE ALABAMA NEAR THE GA/AL
BORDER) WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO AT BEST NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW HUMIDITY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES IN MOST GUIDANCE DOES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 18 AND 22
DEGREES. THINKING THAT A CUMULUS FIELD COULD HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES(NEAR/WEST OF I-65 CORRIDOR).
WITHOUT CLOUD COVER, HIGHS COULD LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
OTHERWISE.
WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR, NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS
TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE WEAK FRONT
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY, DESPITE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60 TO 66 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY AS A
RESULT WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTHWEST BACK INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH THE WEAK FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME, A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD
BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FLORIDA. THE AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES
SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA NORTH OF THIS WAVE. THIS SHOULD MAKE
FOR A NICE, SUNNY DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER PUSHING
INTO THE MID 80S IN NE AL AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FURTHER WEST.
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL BASED ON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH REACH THE 22 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THUS, RAISED
THEM A BIT, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP FOG AT
BAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
THIS FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT TIES BACK TO THE WAVE MOVING FURTHER WEST
THROUGH THE GULF. THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG IT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR). SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. AT THIS TIME, GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. DESPITE 925MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 24 DEGREE RANGE, CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. IT WILL BE
MUCH MORE HUMID AND THEREFORE MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THAT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS. LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MAINLY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AN EXTREMELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHILE A CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST'S COAST, BUT NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAVE
US WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. LUCKILY, THERE IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND
MEAGER SHEAR SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES RISE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SO DO THE PWATS. MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, LETTING THE FRONT
ONLY INCH CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY, PROVIDING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (60-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY NOT REALLY GETTING IN HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TRENDS OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
CONCERNS OF NOT ONLY STRONGER STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT,
AND SENDING RIPPLES THROUGH, FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN IF THE
FRONT ENDS UP FARTHER SOUTH OVER US.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM WESTERN KY TO NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. IT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE INTO TUE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU AND SOME TCU ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY LESS
THAN 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB
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