430
FXUS64 KHUN 240206
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
906 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS IN EARLY THIS EVENING IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOSS OF HEATING WILL LIKELY DEPLETE THE STORMS
VERY QUICKLY BY ~01Z, BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A
CLEAR AND WARM NIGHT. A POOL OF DRIER AIR IS EDGING WESTWARD FROM
GA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S JUST TO OUR EAST.
PWS OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING A
SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM MOISTURE VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE CENTER OF THE 5H AND 8H HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL TN VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL ALSO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH A BIT OF
AFTERNOON MIXING MAY DIP DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER AS THE SLIGHT
DRIER AIR AND LOWER PWS SHIFT WESTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT 10% OR LOWER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THAT CHANGES CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND AN UPPER LOW LIFTS
INTO THE FL PENINSULA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS, AND POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MCVS SHIFT WEST. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. BUT THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AT MINIMUM SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT I SUSPECT POPS WILL CONTINUE GOING UP MODEL
RUN TO RUN. GUSTY TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AS THE UPPER LOW IN FL WOBBLES NORTHWEST INTO GA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, POPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY GO UP INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE AND VERY LIKELY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL WAS
THE LOW WEAKENS BUT A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER GA AND EAST
TN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BASED ON 90TH PERCENTILE AND HIGHER DATA, BUT
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN DATA SUGGESTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO THROUGH
DAY 7. THE AIRMASS SUGGESTS HIGHER WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THEIR MAXES DURING MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION ERUPTS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER NW AL AT ISSUANCE. THESE
ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST, AWAY FROM THE MSL TERMINAL;
BUT THERE IS A CELL JUST TO THE WEST OF MSL. THEREFORE, INCLUDED
VCTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE MSL SITE. AFTER SUNSET
ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE, WITH NO RAIN OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER ANY
PATCHY FOG WOULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS, SO DID NOT MENTION AT THIS
POINT. WE WILL REASSESS FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE IF REDUCTIONS IN
VIS DUE TO FOG NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED. OTHERWISE, CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-
096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26
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