100
FXUS64 KHUN 241608
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. THE 500MB REFLECTION OF THIS HIGH WAS IN THE UPPER
590S DECAMETERS. WARM ALOFT IN THIS RIDGE FOR THE MOST PART HAS
SUPPRESSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNDER AND NEAR IT. THE
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE EXTENDED WESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALBEIT
A LITTLE WEAKER IN REDUCING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND FAR AS A FORECAST GIVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE AREA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AREA TEMPERATURES AT 11 AM
HAVE RISEN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S. THIS HEAT PLUS DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UP TO 107 DEGREES IN FEW SPOTS. GIVE A MORE
SIZABLE AREA OF A HIGHER END OF THESE VALUES, WE WILL CONTINUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA, WITH APPARENT TEMPS UP TO 107 DEGREES
EXPECTED. THUS, THOSE DOING OUTSIDE WORK SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE
STEPS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED AILMENTS. PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE SMALL
CHILDREN OR PETS INSIDE OF A VEHICLE IN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIKE THIS MORNING, PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN/NEAR SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TOMORROW APPEARS WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S. SIMILAR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RAISE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IF
THIS HOT TREND CONTINUES. THOSE HOT VALUES WERE NOTED OVER PARTS OF
MADISON COUNTY. MINOR TWEAKS WITH DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY UPWARD) WILL
INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT.
ALONG WITH HOT CONDITIONS, A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE EVEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEW BLEND GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN, WE'LL BE RAISING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE IN INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK CLIPPING NE ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SULTRY
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THIS
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE NOT AS HOT, INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. BUT DEWPOINT
VALUES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WILL SUPPORT MORE HEAT ADVISORY WARMTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO
THURSDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE. AND LIKE WED, A BIT MORE
MOISTURE RETURN AND THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOW/MODERATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH MORE OF THE AREA
INSIDE OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. DEPENDING UPON WHERE RAIN FALLS
AND HOW MUCH, FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AS THE UPPER LOW IN FL WOBBLES NORTHWEST INTO GA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, POPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY GO UP INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE AND VERY LIKELY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL WAS
THE LOW WEAKENS BUT A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER GA AND EAST
TN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BASED ON 90TH PERCENTILE AND HIGHER DATA, BUT
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN DATA SUGGESTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO THROUGH
DAY 7. THE AIRMASS SUGGESTS HIGHER WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THEIR MAXES DURING MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION ERUPTS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VAR WINDS. NO FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
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