566
FXUS64 KHUN 242222
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
522 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT HAS
KICKED OFF AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MARSHALL AND BLOUNT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS POOLING IN THE MID 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THIS CLUSTER. THE RESULTING AXIS OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IS 4000-4500 J/KG WITH A DCAPE OF 1300-1400 J/KG. HAVE OPTED
TO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP (~15%) WEST FROM THIS STORM IN CASE
THIS STORM MOVES WEST AND/OR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
AFTER SUNSET, A CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TOMORROW APPEARS WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S. SIMILAR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RAISE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IF
THIS HOT TREND CONTINUES. THOSE HOT VALUES WERE NOTED OVER PARTS OF
MADISON COUNTY. MINOR TWEAKS WITH DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY UPWARD) WILL
INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT.
ALONG WITH HOT CONDITIONS, A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE EVEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEW BLEND GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN, WE'LL BE RAISING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE IN INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK CLIPPING NE ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SULTRY
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THIS
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE NOT AS HOT, INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. BUT DEWPOINT
VALUES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WILL SUPPORT MORE HEAT ADVISORY WARMTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO
THURSDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE. AND LIKE WED, A BIT MORE
MOISTURE RETURN AND THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOW/MODERATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH MORE OF THE AREA
INSIDE OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. DEPENDING UPON WHERE RAIN FALLS
AND HOW MUCH, FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AS THE UPPER LOW IN FL WOBBLES NORTHWEST INTO GA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, POPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY GO UP INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE AND VERY LIKELY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL WAS
THE LOW WEAKENS BUT A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER GA AND EAST
TN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BASED ON 90TH PERCENTILE AND HIGHER DATA, BUT
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN DATA SUGGESTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO THROUGH
DAY 7. THE AIRMASS SUGGESTS HIGHER WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THEIR MAXES DURING MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION ERUPTS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
ISOLATED TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. VFR FLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY BR
WITH VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM (MVFR) WILL OCCUR FROM 09-12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17
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