512
FXUS64 KHUN 250129
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS DECIMATED EARLIER ISOLATED PULSE
CONVECTION. A CLEAR SKY WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THE COUPLE SPOTS THAT HAD RAINFALL MAY
BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FOG EARLIER, BUT SHOULD BE VERY
PATCHY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE 5H AND 8H ANTICYCLONE CENTERS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL INSURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH GREATEST CHANCE NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR
AIDED BY THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WEST, SMALL
MVCS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THAT FORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTH GA MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. AS THE FL UPPER
LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD, AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO TEND TO
DEVELOP AS WELL ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO GA,
AL AND EAST TN. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS PWS CLIMB BACK INTO THE
1.7-2.0 INCH RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTH AND EAST COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CHANCE WE GET HEAT RELIEF EARLY IN THE DAY DUE TO
STORMS, OUTFLOWS AND CLOUDS. OVERALL, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS ARE A RISK ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE DCAPE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST AND THEN
SWING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THIS
WILL THEN BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60% CHANCE), ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BY TUESDAY, RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE (40-70%) AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MODEL PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND, WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, FALL WITHIN
THE 75-90TH PERCENTILES. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY MIDWEEK,
WHICH WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THUS, SHOWERS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD OUTPERFORM CURRENT FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LONG TERM. AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING WILL
THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS, INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT BUT BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE STORM
OCCURRENCE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
COME COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. LOWS, HOWEVER, WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
ISOLATED TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. VFR FLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY BR
WITH VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM (MVFR) WILL OCCUR FROM 09-12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17
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