068
FXUS64 KHUN 250736
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS MOVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MORE PATCHY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER AND MID
LEVEL HIGH TODAY, SO WE WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB ABOVE 100 AND
APPROACH 110 DEGREES. ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH GREATEST CHANCE NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR
AIDED BY THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTING,
HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH THE DUAL
THREAT FOR HEAT AND THUNDERSTORMS, BE SURE TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION
TO THE FORECAST TODAY ESPECIALLY IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS, USE SUNSCREEN, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE
HEAT IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE TODAY!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
HAVE EXTENDED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER OVER NORTHEAST AL
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY NOT DIE DOWN AS SOON AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT STILL ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, DO BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 25% DURING THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WEST, SMALL MVCS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE
CONVECTION THAT FORMS TODAY IN THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GA MAY
PRODUCE A FEW STORMS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AS WELL. AS THE FL UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD, AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO TEND TO DEVELOP AS WELL ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO GA, AL AND EAST TN. COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS PWS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1.7-2.0 INCH RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTH AND EAST COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IT
INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY A CHANCE WE GET HEAT RELIEF
EARLY IN THE DAY DUE TO STORMS, OUTFLOWS AND CLOUDS. OVERALL, THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE A RISK ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE DCAPE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST AND THEN
SWING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THIS
WILL THEN BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60% CHANCE), ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BY TUESDAY, RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE (40-70%) AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MODEL PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND, WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, FALL WITHIN
THE 75-90TH PERCENTILES. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY MIDWEEK,
WHICH WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THUS, SHOWERS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD OUTPERFORM CURRENT FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LONG TERM. AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING WILL
THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS, INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT BUT BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE STORM
OCCURRENCE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
COME COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. LOWS, HOWEVER, WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS ASIDE FROM THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND 10-12Z. WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25/17
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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