906
FXUS64 KHUN 252006
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
306 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
STRONG EARLY SUMMERTIME HEATING AND HIGHER INSTABILITY, WITH MID
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
LOW/MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THIS HAS PRODUCED
HEAT INDEXES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AS HIGH AS 110 AT MUSCLE SHOALS.
THUS A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE AREA. WE EARLIER HAVE
EXTENDED IT INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE HEAT AND GREATER INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED RATHER HIGH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. STORMS THAT FIRST STARTED IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. NEWER CONVECTION WAS NOTED NW OF CHATTANOOGA AND OVER
PARTS OF JACKSON/DEKALB/ MARSHALL COUNTIES. WITH HOT CONDITIONS
CONTINUING, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND
MID EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES WERE INDICATIVE THAT THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MICROBURSTS WHEN THEY COLLAPSE, WITH
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS WE GO
INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THUR
MORNING. FOG WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS, AS WELL AS AREAS THAT RECEIVED WETTING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE HEADING
TO THE NW, AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THIS REGION. THE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID
90S, AND IN THE LOWER 90S FRIDAY. BUT WITH STILL HIGH DEWPOINTS
(LOW/MID 70S), HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE, TO ABOVE
CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY. SO WE WILL EXTEND OUR HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
7 PM FRIDAY. LOWS THU/FRI NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
AND WITH THE HEAT, THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THU, AND ABOUT 1/2 OF THE AREA FRI. DAMAGING WINDS, AND MAYBE
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.
AREAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST AND THEN
SWING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THIS
WILL THEN BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60% CHANCE), ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BY TUESDAY, RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE (40-70%) AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MODEL PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND, WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, FALL WITHIN
THE 75-90TH PERCENTILES. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY MIDWEEK,
WHICH WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THUS, SHOWERS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD OUTPERFORM CURRENT FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LONG TERM. AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING WILL
THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS, INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT BUT BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE STORM
OCCURRENCE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
COME COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. LOWS, HOWEVER, WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL
CONTROL THE TENNESSEE VALLEY'S WEATHER FOR THE TAF. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING.. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A SHOWER MENTION IN THE TAF AT OR NEAR A TERMINAL. BUT
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT LATE NIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS AND NEAR AREAS THAT HAD RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL. FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
DAYBREAK THU. STRONG HEATING WILL PRODUCE MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE LATE MORNING, WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB
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