342
FXUS64 KHUN 270542
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS IN NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE WE SAW
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. FURTHER WEST, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
OVERALL, ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH MORNING LOWS ONLY
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS FORECAST FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 101-107 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL 7PM. SOME CAVEATS TO
THIS FORECAST IS WILL THE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WHERE DO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP? BOTH FACTORS WILL LIMIT HOW
HIGH OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES GET.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SPC HAS PLACED THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 700-1000 J/KG. THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT
ANY ORGANIZATION, BUT STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY REMAINING
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ONCE AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES WHERE WE RECEIVE RAIN FROM AFTERNOON STORMS. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN BRINGING AN END TO OUR PROLONGED HEAT WAVE. THAT BEING
SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST, SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BRINGING DAILY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS, ANY STRONG STORM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR, BUT WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY, AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LITTLE TO NO SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
OVER NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN (THESE AREAS SAW THE MOST
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING). FOR NOW, DO NOT HAVE ANY
REDUCTIONS IN VIS FOR THE TERMINALS, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL COME BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER, CHANCES DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THIS EVENING, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
THEN RETURN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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