982
FXUS64 KHUN 271048
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
548 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE RADAR REMAINS TRANQUIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CAN BE SEEN OVER NE AL
AND INTO PORTIONS OF GA AND EASTERN TN VIA NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO FAR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FORT PAYNE
HAVE RECORDED A DIP IN CLOUD CEILINGS AND NOT VISIBILITY. HOWEVER,
OTHER STATIONS IN NW GA HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 1-2 SM VISIBILITIES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW; ALTHOUGH, CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST FOR NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. ANY FOG IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S WITH WINCHESTER, TN RIGHT AT 70
DEGREES. THEREFORE, FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (NE AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN) TO LOWER 70S SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS
THINKING FOR TODAY'S WEATHER REMAINS THE SAME (SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR TODAY BELOW).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (FOR TODAY):
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS FORECAST FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 101-107 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNTIL 7PM. SOME CAVEATS TO
THIS FORECAST IS WILL THE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WHERE DO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP? BOTH FACTORS WILL LIMIT HOW
HIGH OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES GET.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK. BY THIS AFTERNOON CAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 700-1000
J/KG. THE LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY ORGANIZATION,
BUT STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26
2025
BY TONIGHT, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY REMAINING STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ONCE AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES WHERE WE RECEIVE RAIN FROM AFTERNOON STORMS. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN BRINGING AN END TO OUR PROLONGED HEAT WAVE. THAT BEING
SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST, SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BRINGING DAILY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS, ANY STRONG STORM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR, BUT WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY, AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER NE AL, BRINGING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DENSE
FOG; HOWEVER, THIS HAS YET TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OVERALL, NOT
ANTICIPATING FOG TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO EITHER SITE THIS
MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF THIS CHANGES. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN
AND WHERE IS LOW AND WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND
5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...26/GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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