169
FXUS64 KHUN 271626
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-15Z IN THE
VICINITY OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/LOW-
LEVEL STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MS. WITH THE UNCONTAMINATED STORM
ENVIRONMENT PREDICTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE INITIAL CELLS TO GENERATE NEW CONVECTION, WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING WITHIN TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/SAND MOUNTAIN/LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT WEAK/UNORGANIZED FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE AS THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ERRATIC CELL MOTIONS AND AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING (WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8-2" RANGE).
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS (UP TO 60 MPH) AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS GIVEN MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND
DCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG. DUE TO THE EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS, HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE
MET IN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER, IN OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 88-92F RANGE, HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH 105F. THUS, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE NPW IN ITS CURRENT FORM AND
LET IT EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 0Z.
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, AS A MORE STABLE/RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH A REMNANT
LOBE OF VORTICITY (RELATED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH) POTENTIALLY PIVOTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTHEAST THAT MAY SPREAD
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE,
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED TO A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN AR INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY (OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES). FINALLY, LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U60S-L70S, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE WETTING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT MID-
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY DECAY ACROSS EASTERN
GA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST (BEFORE A WEAK 500-MB RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT). THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT, WE EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IN OUR REGION THAT
WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO MESOSCALE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES (AS WELL WE TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA). WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PREDICTED TO REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 1.8-2" RANGE,
SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS WILL YIELD A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON
A DAILY BASIS. FORTUNATELY, BOTH CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES MAY BOTH
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVELS
MOISTEN (AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN), AND THIS MAY REDUCE THE RISK FOR
SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNBURST WINDS (ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
U80-L90S, WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S AND WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS
IN THE 95-100F RANGE WE DO NOT FORESEE THE NEED FOR EXPANSION OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS
A TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR, BUT WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY, AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER NE AL, BRINGING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DENSE
FOG; HOWEVER, THIS HAS YET TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OVERALL, NOT
ANTICIPATING FOG TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO EITHER SITE THIS
MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF THIS CHANGES. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN
AND WHERE IS LOW AND WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND
5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...GH
AVIATION...26
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