097
FXUS64 KHUN 280223
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
WE HAVE HAD A BREAK FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS (WITH A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO MIXED IN), CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH FORM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
ALONG A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR HALEYVILLE, AL ESE THROUGH WARRIOR AND INTO
THE WATTSVILLE COMMUNITIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTING, HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATED IN A FEW STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DROPPED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY. 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS STILL
INDICATED IN MESO-ANLYSIS. 2 TO 6 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
DEGREES/KM ARE ALSO SEEN IN MESO-ANALYSIS AT 9 PM WITH DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 900 J/KG. THUS, AS THESE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT, SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OVER THE NEXT HOUR, POSSIBLY A STORM COULD BECOME
BRIEFLY SEVERE, BUT MOST WILL NOT. THIS ACTIVITY IN RAP13 (WHICH
DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY WELL RIGHT NOW) DOES NOT MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH. ONLY MAYBE TO NORTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY OR SOUTHERN MARSHALL
COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THIS GUIDANCE DOES HINT THE
STORMS MAY MAKE A BIT MORE PROGRESS TO THE NORTH IN LAWRENCE,
FRANKLIN, AND COLBERT COUNTIES IN NW ALABAMA THROUGH THEN.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND THE OVERALL SOLUTION OF THE
RAP13 GUIDANCE (GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT), INCREASED POP A BIT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT IN
PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN CULLMAN, MARSHALL, AND DEKALB
COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM.
FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED, AS THIS ACTIVITY ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT. EXPECT
POSSIBLY SOME DENSER FOG WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WHERE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER
RAINFALL MIGHT OCCUR THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT MID-
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY DECAY ACROSS EASTERN
GA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST (BEFORE A WEAK 500-MB RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT). THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT, WE EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IN OUR REGION THAT
WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO MESOSCALE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES (AS WELL WE TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA). WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PREDICTED TO REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 1.8-2" RANGE,
SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS WILL YIELD A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON
A DAILY BASIS. FORTUNATELY, BOTH CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES MAY BOTH
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVELS
MOISTEN (AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN), AND THIS MAY REDUCE THE RISK FOR
SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNBURST WINDS (ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
U80-L90S, WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S AND WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS
IN THE 95-100F RANGE WE DO NOT FORESEE THE NEED FOR EXPANSION OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS
A TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR, BUT WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY, AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUMMERTIME
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AL. NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO EITHER
TERMINAL BEFORE SUNSET, WITH ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EAST OF KHSV
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR THE KMSL TERMINAL TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING LATER IN THE
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION NEAR THAT TERMINAL.
THIS FOG COULD BE DENSE BETWEEN 28/8Z AND 28/12Z. KHSV DID NOT SEE
MUCH RAINFALL TODAY SO FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN
THERE. MVFR VSBYS REDUCTIONS WERE LEFT IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KHSV
BETWEEN 28/08Z AND 28/12Z FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. AT
BOTH TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z. A PROB30
GROUP WAS INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 28/21 AND 28/24Z FOR
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON -TSRA DEVELOPMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, SOME
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KTW
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