506
FXUS64 KHUN 280524
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DROPPED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY. 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS STILL
INDICATED IN MESO-ANLYSIS. 2 TO 6 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
DEGREES/KM ARE ALSO SEEN IN MESO-ANALYSIS AT 9 PM WITH DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 900 J/KG. THUS, AS THESE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT, SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
DEKALB OR SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME
GUIDANCE HINTS 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH IN NW
ALABAMA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM.
FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED, AS THIS ACTIVITY ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT. EXPECT
POSSIBLY SOME DENSER FOG WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WHERE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER
RAINFALL MIGHT OCCUR THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TREND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL HIGHS LOOK LOWER THOUGH GIVEN POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
INSTABILITY A BIT LOWER AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT
WEAKER. THUS, EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S MAINLY. FLASH AND AREAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, IF RAINFALL OCCURS
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S AS AN OVERALL HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOT STRONG BUT
SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS)
APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
WEAK WITH THIS FRONT, BUT STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. PWATS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0
INCHES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE
(60 TO 80 PERCENT) OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOT SURE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LOT HIGHER, SO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE FRONT ONLY MOVES CLOSER TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN (60 TO 90 PERCENT). NOT MUCH CHANGES
IN MOST GUIDANCE, SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
FLOODING.
THE FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BUILD HOTTER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. HIGHS MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AGAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING HAS
DIMINISHED. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
THE TAF SITES. FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR MSL
DUE TO RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG; BUT, FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS AND TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR AT MSL AND TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT HSV.
ANY FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THEN ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS IN ANY STRONGER STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN DIMINISHING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS, WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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