409
FXUS64 KHUN 280857
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM LAST EVENING HAS SINCE
DIMINISHED. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, AS
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND THERE WERE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL. CURRENTLY, THE ONLY SURFACE STATION INDICATING
LOW VISIBILITY IS THE ONE IN CULLMAN, WHICH REPORTED VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 1 MILE IN THE LAST HOUR. A FEW STATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST HAVE REPORTED LOWER VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 1-2 MILES, BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD. THIS COULD BE DUE IN PART TO SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE STORM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY (ESPECIALLY NW AL AND
NE AL), ALONG WITH RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF
WATER ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH, ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING WITH THE SUNRISE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA LOOKS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY REACHING BETWEEN 1800-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH, BULK SHEAR IS MINIMAL, SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS, IF A STRONGER STORM IS ABLE TO FORM (DUE
TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION), GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE PROBABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THUS, AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS, ANY STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE, IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, REMEMBER: WHEN THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS! ALSO, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FLOODED ROADS!
LASTLY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S TODAY; ALTHOUGH,
SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA MAY REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THIS IS BECAUSE OF INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. ALTHOUGH, EVEN WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS FORECAST,
IT WILL STILL BE HOT OUTSIDE. THE SUMMER CONTINUES! MAKE SURE TO
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU ARE
WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY ALOFT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TREND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL HIGHS LOOK LOWER THOUGH GIVEN POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
INSTABILITY A BIT LOWER AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT
WEAKER. THUS, EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S MAINLY. FLASH AND AREAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, IF RAINFALL OCCURS
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S AS AN OVERALL HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOT STRONG BUT
SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS)
APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
WEAK WITH THIS FRONT, BUT STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. PWATS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0
INCHES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE
(60 TO 80 PERCENT) OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOT SURE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LOT HIGHER, SO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE FRONT ONLY MOVES CLOSER TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN (60 TO 90 PERCENT). NOT MUCH CHANGES
IN MOST GUIDANCE, SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
FLOODING.
THE FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BUILD HOTTER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. HIGHS MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AGAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING HAS
DIMINISHED. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
THE TAF SITES. FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR MSL
DUE TO RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG; BUT, FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VIS AND TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR AT MSL AND TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT HSV.
ANY FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THEN ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS IN ANY STRONGER STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN DIMINISHING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS, WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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