861
FXUS64 KHUN 281716
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1216 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
IT'S ALREADY WARM AND MUGGY OUTSIDE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND
RECENTLY WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS CLOSELY
FOLLOWING BEHIND.
NOW JUST SEEING A FEW SHOWERS POP UP ON RADAR IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN, HOWEVER EXPECTING GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TN VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
MOIST WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (2-3K J/KG AND PWATS ~2"), BUT
VERY LITTLE SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE. THUS, WITH LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING QUICKLY AND BEING
PROFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS (1-2"/'HR), THIS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE
AREAL FLOODING AND POSSIBLY VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SPC DOES NOT HAVE US OUTLOOKED, HOWEVER WPC DID PLACE A
MARGINAL ERO OVER US FOR THAT HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, HOWEVER
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES, HEAT SAFETY NEEDS TO BE TOP
PRIORITY. AND WHILE YOU ARE OUTSIDE TRYING TO BEAT THE HEAT, IT'S
IMPERATIVE THAT YOU STAY WEATHER AWARE. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER
OR SEE LIGHTNING, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT LEAVE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THAT COULD GIVE WAY TO PATCHY FOG LATER ON
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SLOW MOVING GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MIDWEST
AND INTO OUR REGION. LOOK FOR MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES 60-80% TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, THUS KEEPING LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GOING. GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE OTHER PRIMARY HAZARDS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
90S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE FRONT ONLY MOVES CLOSER TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN (60 TO 90 PERCENT). NOT MUCH CHANGES
IN MOST GUIDANCE, SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
FLOODING.
THE FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BUILD HOTTER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. HIGHS MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AGAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR KMSL AND KHSV
UNTIL IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A PROB30
FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THESE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL REDUCE VIS
INTO MVFR, PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, HOWEVER PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW MUCH FOG WILL
AFFECT TERMINALS SO LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
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