404
FXUS64 KHUN 282355
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
655 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WITH MIDDAY HEAT, STARTING TO SEE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MONITORING THE
CONVECTION NW OF THE CWA AS IT IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND WILL POP
UP CELLS IN NW AL. THE CAMS ARE NOT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING ON
WELL, THUS NOT FAIRING WELL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REGARDLESS, NOT
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS THE CONCEPT REMAINS THE SAME. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THINKING: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS, HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WITH THEM. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED AFTER
SUNSET, AND THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEAR NORMAL, AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SLOW MOVING GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MIDWEST
AND INTO OUR REGION. LOOK FOR MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES 60-80% TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, THUS KEEPING LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GOING. GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE OTHER PRIMARY HAZARDS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
90S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE FRONT ONLY MOVES CLOSER TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN (60 TO 90 PERCENT). NOT MUCH CHANGES
IN MOST GUIDANCE, SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
FLOODING.
THE FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BUILD HOTTER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. HIGHS MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES AGAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS AT THE
PRESENT TIME, FEATURING SCT CU BENEATH BKN-OVC LAYERS OF AS/CS AND
A LGT WSW WIND. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR DATA, TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE INVOF HSV FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A
TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM 0-3Z TO ADDRESS BOTH MVFR CONDS
FROM TSRA AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR AWWS. LATER THIS EVENING, WE
EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH, BUT WITH SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PREDICTED TO BE IN THE GENERAL AREA,
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PATCHY BR/FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY, BUT WE WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING VSBY REDUCTIONS TO THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RATHER
QUICKLY (FROM W-TO-E) SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, AND PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM WSW AT 5-10 KTS (DURING THE DAY) TO LGT/VRBL (OVERNIGHT).
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...70/DD
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