953
FXUS64 KHUN 290840
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, BUT THESE HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED AND RELATIVELY
WEAK. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES STILL PRESENT IN THE REGION, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE SEEN ONLY MINOR EVIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR, WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SURFACE STATIONS
(CULLMAN AND FORT PAYNE) SHOWING SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
WIDESPREAD FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. ALSO, AS WAS STATED PREVIOUSLY, THE ONSET OF TODAY'S SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN A BIT FASTER/EARLIER COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY (PERHAPS BETWEEN 13-15Z). SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST, ANY
STORM TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS! TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THIS EVENING, THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA REMAINS BENEATH A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND A DECAYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER GA. THIS CONTRIBUTED TO AN ABUNDANCE OF SLOW-MOVING,
OUTFLOW-INITIATED CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING (WHICH
SUBSEQUENTLY RESULTED IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA) AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL WATERSPOUT
BENEATH A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UPDRAFT OVER WILSON LAKE, WHICH IS
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE MOIST NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR DATA, RESIDUAL RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY END
BETWEEN 3-4Z, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY MIST/FOG POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES DESCEND INTO THE U60S-L70S. THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
FROM THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWFA PRIOR TO 12Z IS UNLIKELY, WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY/TN AND WITHIN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO THE EAST OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WITH MULTIPLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES STILL RESIDING ACROSS
OUR REGION, IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.9-2"
AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SHOULD THIS OCCUR,
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM STORMS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION STILL
IN PLACE, AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LIKELY TO ENTER
THE REGION FROM STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST (SHORTLY AFTER 12Z),
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL TAKE PLACE QUITE A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY TOMORROW
(POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 13-15Z IN THE WEST), AND MORE SIMILAR TO
THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS PAST FRIDAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD ALONG OUTWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 0Z MONDAY AS
RAIN-COOLED AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN LOCATIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO REACH THE M-U 80S PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH IN THE STRONGER CELLS, BUT THE MOST COMMON THREATS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TN VALLEY, IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THAT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
STEERING CURRENTS, WITH GENERALLY SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW-INITIATED
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. THAT SAID, THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING/PRE-DAWN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY (PERHAPS
RELATED TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY), AND THIS COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
EVEN MORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW (ACROSS MI) SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHERN OK AT 0Z TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, CLUSTERS OF STORM MAY
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE FRONT AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
TO VEER TO WNW, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REACH THE TN
VALLEY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION, THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. COOLING
PROFILES ALOFT (RELATED TO THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW REGIME) WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SMALL MCS TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
(SHOULD THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY IN THE WAKE OF ANY
MORNING PRECIPITATION). STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EXITING OUR CWFA TO
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT,
AND LIGHT NNE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 65-70F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE LASTEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER ON WEDNESDAY (DEPENDING ON THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE DRIER AIRMASS), MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DRY FORECAST, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
BACK INTO THE 60S BENEATH A LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE RISE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE L-M 90S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
HEAT AND GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY, AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS, FEATURING
BKN- OVC LAYERS OF AS/CS AND A LGT SE WIND. HOWEVER, WITH SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA,
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PATCHY BR/FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY, BUT WE WILL REFRAIN
FROM ADDING VSBY REDUCTIONS TO THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RATHER
QUICKLY (FROM W-TO-E) SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, AND PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT MSL/14-18Z AND HSV/16-20Z TO INDICATE THE
TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN FOR STORM IMPACTS. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN IN
THE WAKE OF STORMS, WITH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26/70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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