204
FXUS64 KHUN 291754
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP ON RADAR
THIS MORNING. TODAY'S FORECAST FEELS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY
JUST WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLIER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW (5-10KTS) STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OR NEARLY
STATIONARY. WITH THE 99TH PERCENTILE PWATS OF ~2" IN PLACE, THEY
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS, 1-2"/HR AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. WPC HAS PLACED US IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR
THIS. ALONG WITH THE ~2,000 J/KG INSTABILITY IN PLACE, A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS (AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS). CONVECTION WILL
START TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FOG TONIGHT, AS SOME HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
ALONG WITH THE NAM IS SUGGESTING CONVECTION STARTING EARLY ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IF THAT DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED,
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL, AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
DAYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOMORROW, BUT
SOME HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION TOMORROW POSSIBLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
OFF TO OUR NW OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
PROVIDING HIGH CHANCES OF AROUND 70%. WITH CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE
TODAY (WEAK SHEAR, GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE) STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE
STARTING IN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (HIGH CHANCES OF 70-80%) AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AROUND 70 DEGREES BOTH NIGHTS AS
WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE LASTEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER ON WEDNESDAY (DEPENDING ON THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE DRIER AIRMASS), MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DRY FORECAST, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
BACK INTO THE 60S BENEATH A LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE RISE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE L-M 90S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
HEAT AND GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY, AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE STRONGEST CORES. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WHEN STORMS START TO DIMINISH, HOWEVER MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIFT AROUND 14Z BUT MORE
SHOWER/STORMS WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS
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