452
FXUS64 KHUN 300009
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
709 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS. AS EXPECTED, THE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING TO
FLASH FLOODING. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE
CREATING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND HELPING STORMS POP UP PRETTY
QUICKLY. ENSURE THAT YOU DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS,
YOU NEVER KNOW HOW DEEP THE WATER IS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
AND IF OUTDOORS, REMEMBER, IF YOU SEE A FLASH, DASH INSIDE!
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS 12-15Z. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW EARLY AS MODELS
ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT, SO TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
DAYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
DOWN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOMORROW, BUT
SOME HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION TOMORROW POSSIBLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
OFF TO OUR NW OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
PROVIDING HIGH CHANCES OF AROUND 70%. WITH CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE
TODAY (WEAK SHEAR, GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE) STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE
STARTING IN MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (HIGH CHANCES OF 70-80%) AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AROUND 70 DEGREES BOTH NIGHTS AS
WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE LASTEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER ON WEDNESDAY (DEPENDING ON THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE DRIER AIRMASS), MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DRY FORECAST, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
BACK INTO THE 60S BENEATH A LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE RISE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE L-M 90S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
HEAT AND GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY, AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
RESIDUAL LGT RA (REMNANTS OF CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY) WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, AND WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS NOW IN PROGRESS THE FIRST
POTENTIAL CONCERN TO ADDRESS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM 8-12Z, BUT GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY NATURE OF RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY,
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE CONVECTION, WHICH MAY REDEVELOP INVOF A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY (ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA) AS EARLY
AS 10-12Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS (AND
OVERALL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY) REGARDING THIS SCENARIO, WE HAVE
CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN THE TAFS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BUT RESERVED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME WHICH
APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW WHEN STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. ASIDE
FROM IMPACTS FROM EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON TSRA, CONDS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE SW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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