477
FXUS64 KHUN 301103
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WHICH FOR THE MOST PART HAS KEPT FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION WHERE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST IS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME FOG CAN BE SEEN ON THE NIGHTTIME
CLOUD MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OVERNIGHT, A BAND OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN TN
DECAYED LEAVING A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY
WILL BE AN AREA OF INTEREST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS CONTINUE TO
BE A MIXED BAG OF WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR, BUT BEST
GUESS IS THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING THE
DAYTIME PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS YESTERDAY DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY FROM MORNING CLOUD COVER
AND OR SHOWERS, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP IS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 2 INCHES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LATEST MODEL DATA STILL INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT (RELATED TO
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM) WILL LIKELY EXTEND
FROM A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE (OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES)
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN OK AT 0Z
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY AND COVERAGE,
NEARLY ALL NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BROKEN CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW
EVENING, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PREDICTED TO REACH OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 6-12Z TUESDAY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SUB-SEVERE, BUT MAY CARRY A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS (GIVEN STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW) AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION (AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS) TUESDAY MORNING,
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS
THE INITIAL FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PRESUMING THAT LINGERING IMPACTS FROM MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ERODED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A MINOR
INCREASE IN BOTH CAPE AND MID-LEVEL WNW FLOW MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER/MCS AS THE WIND
SHIFT AXIS SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THIS REPRESENTS THE
TIMEFRAME OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
RISK.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING, AS LIGHT NNE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ORIGINATING FROM A MODIFIED NORTH PACIFIC
AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THE SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR IS DELAYED, THEN A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT POPS ARE QUITE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO
(5-10%). HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE M-U 80S BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY,
BUT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AND VEER TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (TO OUR SOUTHWEST) BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE DICTATED BY A SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE IMPACTED TO SOME EXTENT BY
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK AS AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURN TO THE L-M 90S. WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOTH ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT AND CAPE ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND, A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR BOTH
DAYS (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
IFR STATUS DECK IN PLACE WEST OF OF I-65 THIS MORNING WITH A BIT
MORE BROKEN FURTHER EAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HSV RETURNING TO
VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
MORNING WITH LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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