453
FXUS64 KHUN 301652
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1152 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH 11 AM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S, AND SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RATHER,
LOW CLOUD BASES WERE OCCURRING WITH CEILINGS HEIGHTS OF 1000-3000
FT AGL. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN THOSE
CLOUDS EITHER RISING HIGHER AND/OR BECOMING MORE OF A CUMULIFORM
TYPE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER,
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE LATEST MODELS ALL SHOW TO SOME DEGREE THAT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. "GENERAL" INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED, WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ITEM
OF CONCERN IS THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF
ISSUES, WITH A NON-ZERO RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUDS ALREADY PRESENT
AND MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER, ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN/NEAR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND IN
THOSE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AND VEER TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (TO OUR SOUTHWEST) BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE DICTATED BY A SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE IMPACTED TO SOME EXTENT BY
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK AS AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURN TO THE L-M 90S. WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOTH ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT AND CAPE ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND, A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR BOTH
DAYS (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
IFR STATUS DECK IN PLACE WEST OF OF I-65 THIS MORNING WITH A BIT
MORE BROKEN FURTHER EAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HSV RETURNING TO
VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
MORNING WITH LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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