468
FXUS64 KHUN 301749
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH 11 AM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S, AND SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RATHER,
LOW CLOUD BASES WERE OCCURRING WITH CEILINGS HEIGHTS OF 1000-3000
FT AGL. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN THOSE
CLOUDS EITHER RISING HIGHER AND/OR BECOMING MORE OF A CUMULIFORM
TYPE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER,
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE LATEST MODELS ALL SHOW TO SOME DEGREE THAT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. "GENERAL" INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED, WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ITEM
OF CONCERN IS THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF
ISSUES, WITH A NON-ZERO RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUDS ALREADY PRESENT
AND MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER, ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN/NEAR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND IN
THOSE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AND VEER TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (TO OUR SOUTHWEST) BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE DICTATED BY A SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE IMPACTED TO SOME EXTENT BY
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK AS AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURN TO THE L-M 90S. WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOTH ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT AND CAPE ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND, A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR BOTH
DAYS (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
PERSISTENT STRATUS CLOUDS PRODUCED MVFR CIGS AS WE GO INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO, AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING SCATTERS AND/OR RAISES THE
CEILING HIGHER. THIS MIXING AND PRODUCTION OF TOWERING CUMULUS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN A STORM COULD IMPACT A TERMINAL, HAVE NOT
ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO AND PROB30 SEGMENT THIS ISSUANCE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE
MORNING. WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS FOR TUE AM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RSB
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