864
FXUS64 KHUN 010438
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
RAIN HAS EXITED ALL BUT A SLIVER OF LAWRENCE AND CULLMAN COUNTIES.
IT IS UNLIKELY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN VERY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S,
WON'T TOTALLY RULE OUT FOG, BUT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO BE LOW CLOUDS
AT THIS POINT.
A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO
THE OZARKS AND RED RIVER VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THERE HAVE BEEN
VARIED SOLUTIONS IN CAMS WHETHER THIS IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON REACHING SOUTHERN TN OR NORTHWEST AL
BEFORE MORNING. AT THIS POINT, THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, WITH
PWS OF WELL OVER 2 INCHES, ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY INSTIGATE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY IN MIDDLE AND SOUTHWEST TN. THESE
CLUSTERS WILL MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. AGAIN, EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY, AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL ARRIVE BRINGING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE OZARKS AND OH/TN VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
WINDS DROP. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HEAT UP A BIT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD EAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND, SPANNING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD
GRADUAL HEATING EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND
WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT
THIS TIME, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY,
BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LOW CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE BY
MORNING, BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN SO LEFT WITHIN A PROB 30 GROUP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
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