221
FXUS64 KHUN 010856
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
356 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO
NW AL AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING. THIS LINE HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THESE STORMS HAVE FORMED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WILL BE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS PLACED ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK) FOR SEVERE STORMS. SFC BASED CAPE
IS PROGGED TO RISE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. PWS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE THE MAIN
SEVERE HAZARDS TODAY ARE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. AGAIN, EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY, AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL ARRIVE BRINGING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE OZARKS AND OH/TN VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG
LOOKS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
WINDS DROP. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HEAT UP A BIT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD EAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND, SPANNING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD
GRADUAL HEATING EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND
WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT
THIS TIME, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY,
BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LOW CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE BY
MORNING, BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN SO LEFT WITHIN A PROB 30 GROUP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
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