023
FXUS64 KHUN 011524
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
WE BEGIN TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORMS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BY 17-18Z -- QUICKLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE, WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING AS HIGH AS 2000-4000 J/KG
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A COUPLE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST, THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ON LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STILL WEAK SHEAR IN
PLACE, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY DISORGANIZED AND PULSE-LIKE.
THINK THAT LOCALIZED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS (POTENTIALLY FROM
OUTFLOW AND/OR A WET MICROBURST). THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.0" IN THIS VERY MOIST
TROPICAL-LIKE ENVIRONMENT. WPC HAS PLACED NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (WITH
A MARGINAL RISK - LEVEL 1/4 PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION), AND
AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY
WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND TRAINS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT -- WITH EVEN
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING
SKY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MID TO
LATE WEEK, JUST IN TIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES.
IN SHORT, WHAT THIS WILL MEAN WILL BE DRY WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING FIREWORKS! AMPLE SUNSHINE PROVIDED FROM THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE (CLEAR SKY) FROM THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS -- AND POTENTIALLY THE MID 90S IN SOME AREAS ON THE
FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY). THE COMBINATION OF SOME RISING DEWPOINTS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME COULD CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO THE
100 DEGREE MARK BY INDEPENDENCE DAY. THUS, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE HEAT AND REVIEW HEAT SAFETY RULES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD EAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND, SPANNING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD
GRADUAL HEATING EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND
WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT
THIS TIME, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY,
BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LOW CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
LOW LEVEL IFR/MVFR CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DECAYING COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY WILL HELP IGNITE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN ANY HEAVIER STORM. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES BY EARLY THIS EVENING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
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